[This is the headline over a report on the website of the US National Public Radio. It reads in part:]
As President Obama weighs a possible limited military strike against Syria, he may want to consider the track record of his predecessors on this front. It's not encouraging.
The Obama administration and several before it have seen limited attacks as a way to send a tough message without drawing the US into a larger conflict.
But critics say such strikes rarely, if ever, inflict serious damage or change the behavior of those targeted. And worse, limited US military action has been followed by some of the deadliest attacks against American targets over the past three decades.
"If this is indeed the sort of attack on Syria that the president is contemplating, it is not likely to be very effective," writes Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University and a frequent commentator on the Middle East. "Indeed, it may encourage [President Bashar Assad] to launch even more chemical weapons attacks due to the belief that while US retaliation may be annoying, it will not threaten the survival of his regime."
Here's a list of several limited US strikes in recent decades:
[Number 2 on that list reads:]
Libya, 1986: Libya was implicated in the deadly bombing of a disco in Berlin frequented by US servicemen. In response, Reagan ordered a one-night bombing raid on Libya, which targeted the compound of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.
The Libyan leader survived, and two years later, in December 1988, a Pan Am plane was blown up over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing 270 people on the plane and the ground. Many of the dead were Americans. After a protracted international legal fight, Libya acknowledged involvement and paid compensation of $1.5 billion in 2008. Gadhafi remained in power until 2011, when a more sustained NATO air campaign helped rebels drive him from power.
[RB: Libya did not, of course, “acknowledge involvement” as a state. What it did acknowledge is set out here. Many commentators believe that the attack on Pan Am 103 was motivated by revenge, not for the Tripoli and Benghazi bombing, but for the shooting down of IR 655 over the Persian Gulf by the USS Vincennes.]
As President Obama weighs a possible limited military strike against Syria, he may want to consider the track record of his predecessors on this front. It's not encouraging.
The Obama administration and several before it have seen limited attacks as a way to send a tough message without drawing the US into a larger conflict.
But critics say such strikes rarely, if ever, inflict serious damage or change the behavior of those targeted. And worse, limited US military action has been followed by some of the deadliest attacks against American targets over the past three decades.
"If this is indeed the sort of attack on Syria that the president is contemplating, it is not likely to be very effective," writes Mark Katz, a professor at George Mason University and a frequent commentator on the Middle East. "Indeed, it may encourage [President Bashar Assad] to launch even more chemical weapons attacks due to the belief that while US retaliation may be annoying, it will not threaten the survival of his regime."
Here's a list of several limited US strikes in recent decades:
[Number 2 on that list reads:]
Libya, 1986: Libya was implicated in the deadly bombing of a disco in Berlin frequented by US servicemen. In response, Reagan ordered a one-night bombing raid on Libya, which targeted the compound of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi.
The Libyan leader survived, and two years later, in December 1988, a Pan Am plane was blown up over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing 270 people on the plane and the ground. Many of the dead were Americans. After a protracted international legal fight, Libya acknowledged involvement and paid compensation of $1.5 billion in 2008. Gadhafi remained in power until 2011, when a more sustained NATO air campaign helped rebels drive him from power.
[RB: Libya did not, of course, “acknowledge involvement” as a state. What it did acknowledge is set out here. Many commentators believe that the attack on Pan Am 103 was motivated by revenge, not for the Tripoli and Benghazi bombing, but for the shooting down of IR 655 over the Persian Gulf by the USS Vincennes.]
Although the National Public Radio commentator is way off the mark in claiming Libyan responsibility for Lockerbie, he is right to say that the US attack on Libya, operation El Dorado Canyon, resulted in an INCREASE in Libyan-linked terrorist attacks against US interests. Terrorism experts such as Bruce Hoffman and Ariel Merari and many others have demonstrated that US punitive air strikes on Libya resulted in much more terrorist activity than had previously been the case. It seems likely that punitive strikes against Syria will have the same effect.
ReplyDeleteThere are many terrorist groups who rely on Syrian support of one sort or another; and who are very likely to demonstrate their loyalty to the Syrian regime if the regime comes under external attack.
MISSION LOCKERBIE, 2013
ReplyDeleteLOCKERBIE: CALL FOR U.N. INVESTIGATION
U.N. must investigat the background of the 'Scottish Fraud' about the bombing of flight, Pan Am 103, over Lockerbie - produced by a miscarriage of Scottish Justice!
On December 21, 1988, Pan Am Flight 103 exploded over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all 259 people on board as well as 11 on the ground.
by Edwin and Mahnaz Bollier, MEBO Ltd. Switzerland. URL: www.lockerbie.ch
MISSION LOCKERBIE, 2013
ReplyDeleteLOCKERBIE: CALL FOR U.N. INVESTIGATION
U.N. must investigat the background of the 'Scottish Fraud' about the bombing of flight, Pan Am 103, over Lockerbie - produced by a miscarriage of Scottish Justice!
On December 21, 1988, Pan Am Flight 103 exploded over Lockerbie, Scotland, killing all 259 people on board as well as 11 on the ground.
by Edwin and Mahnaz Bollier, MEBO Ltd. Switzerland. URL: www.lockerbie.ch